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| Image courtesy Depositphotos |
Now that the referendum is done, gentle reader, it's time for an analysis - or maybe a post mortem.
The proposition was dead from the day that Littleproud, looking over his shoulder at the 5% of PHON voters that stalk the Nationals in Queensland, scurried away from the idea like a rabbit on the run.
This left Dutton with the possibility of blowing up the Coalition agreement if he supported the "Yes" case, and although many in his party were supportive, he also took the coward's option.
From that moment, given the history of referenda lacking bipartisan support, the enterprise was doomed.
The disinformation spread on social media by the keyboard warriors didn't help, but probably wasn't a decisive issue. Disregard, complacency, and general disengagement were complicit. Unfortunately, much of the casual nascent racism that persists on the edges of our culture emerged in this media. Some of it was also apparent on what is called mainstream media.
We used to have a saying in Vietnam - "Thumb in bum - brain in neutral". It was applied to soldiers who had become so complacent, patrolling in a "switched-off" state of mind, that they were a risk to themselves and other soldiers.
This complacency exists in perhaps half our voting population. If they're not affected, they really couldn't care less. The same cynical political principle applied fifty years ago when 1/12 of twenty year olds were conscripted to fight overseas in a civil war in peacetime. Despite that fact that the policy was morally bankrupt and anti-democratic, it persisted for about ten years until Australian voters woke up.
So that's the "why".
Let's look at the "what".
First up, indigenous Australians were supportive. This is evident when you examine voting patterns in the remote mobile booths in Lingiari, and on Palm Island. Mornington Island, Hopevale and Yarrabah showed a similar pattern.
Secondly, the electorates that the Coalition lost in 2022 to Green and Teal independents voted solidly "Yes". This means that voters in these electorates are feeling more than a little aggrieved. What are the odds that they will return to the Coalition next federal poll?
Dutton may have begun a journey towards the complete demise of his Coalition.
Update - This map of the voting patterns in indigenous communities gives the lie to the statement from Jacinta Price that they didn't support it.
