Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

I’ve found some stats I was chasing about Workchoices – it’s difficult at the moment as I travelling and working and have limited time and web access.

The point I am making is not to deny that unemployment is trending down, and engagement in the labour force is trending up, but to point out that these simple statistics have to be used in a comparative way to establish that Workchoices has had an effect.

If you look at the images, available on the Principle Labour Force Series Trend Estimates page of the ABS website you will see –

The first graph shows the unemployment rate. You will notice that it’s pretty uniform with the exception of 1999 – 2001. As I understand it, Workchoices took effect in May 2006. If its introduction has had a major effect, you would expect to see a major downward blip in the graph starting at about May 2006, and continuing until the present. It’s not evident. The average trend continues.
The upward blip in 2001 is interesting. Who was in power then?
The second graph is employment (engagement) for the same period. Again, you would expect to see a blip if Workchoices had helped. Again, it’s not there. The trend is remarkably consistent.

The best that Joe Hockey can say is that Workchoices has maintained the positive Labour Force trends. It’s not had a major effect.

Telstra Blues

After yesterday, I understand how much I rely on my mobile, and what a pain it is when it lets me down.

I’m working through Goondiwindi, St George, Surat, Roma & Meandarra this week. I’m also in the middle of buying some property in Brisbane. The network fell down yesterday morning and I was in deep do-do. My phone became a useless lump of metal and plastic. Standing on the boot of the car to call made no difference – this has worked before.

I got around it by using phone boxes – also discovering that they are now an endangered species, before I called into a Telstra agent in Goondiwindi who was very helpful. As soon as I walked in with mobile in hand, she knew the problem – I wasn’t the first for the day.

She changed my phone settings from 3G to 2G – I have no idea of the technicalities of this – and it (sort of) works again. She wasn’t sure when it would be fixed, and explained that the problem was widespread.

This could be an interesting trip.

Gone to the Dogs

I’ve always had a weakness for Australian Cattle Dogs, having owned three as my kids were growing up and we lived in the bush. The last one died a year ago, and I haven’t considered acquiring another whilst we live in a suburban block, and the kids have either left home or have more riveting interests than dogs.

My youngest daughter has a Poodle cross which doesn’t need as much exercise as a Heeler, and in any case is as thick as two short planks. She has no brains at all. (The dog – not my daughter).

Having said that, I’m enjoying a Heeler fix, looking after my sister’s bluey whilst she and her husband tour the shaky isles.

Bella is very smart, and has already established top dog status – chastising Janet (that’s what my daughter called her – she was only nine at the time) when the smaller dog barks or in some other way misbehaves.

She also understands what cars are for, and as soon as a car door is opened, leaps like a startled gazelle into the front passenger’s seat. She takes some moving – although if you drive the car about a metre and then open the door she leaps out.

She’s pictured here in my classic Peugeot 505.

Methinks they doth protest too much….

It’s passing strange to me, dear fellow blogger, that the Australian has published a daily report on the so-called Heiner affair for about a week now.

The strange part is that their editorial line clearly maintains that the whole thing is a beat-up, designed to discredit Kevin Rudd, and driven substantially by the obsessions of Kevin Lindeberg, a former union official.

Notables such as Alan Jones, Barnaby Joyce, Piers Akerman and Bronwyn Bishop have risen to the fray, and many column inches have been devoted to the well-worn narrative about evidence being shredded (it’s still on file), to keep the issue bubbling along.

Writing a non-story on a daily basis is very strange journalism.

I know I’m naïve and gullible, but I do detect a rat-like odour.

Johnny’s Voyage of Discovery

It’s amazing what bad polls will do. John Howard has embarked on an incredible voyage of discovery in the last few months of his current term.

In short order, he’s discovered climate change, updated broadband, autistic children and now indigenous reconciliation.

Are voters expected to totally ignore the fact that all these issues have been around the whole time he’s been in office?

This man has never been a leader’s bootlace. He’s always followed the line fed to him by his spinmeisters, and combined that with base cunning and good timing.

The irony in all this lies in the fact that his opponent operates in much the same manner.

It’s a pretty sad indictment of Australian politics.

Dog Whistle Politics

Because I’ve been around for a while, I’ve built up a few simple ideas about how politicians operate in this country. Right about now, on the eve of a federal election campaign, is a good time to observe and reflect.

I remember recently, in reverse sequence, the “Children overboard” affair, and the Tampa Incident. Prior to that, there was the rise and fall of One Nation, and before that, the Red Menace that was initially used as the justification for our presence in Vietnam.

Last week, we had Kevin Andrews whistling up the race issue.

These incidents or situations all had something very important in common – the use of fear and loathing by conservative politicians to garner support for their re-election. It’s a very sad and ugly feature of Australian politics, and is used because it’s been successful.

To me, there is something weak and cowardly about using people’s base instincts to control them. It is the antithesis of leadership and a sign of intellectual failure and cynicism.

It’s called “dog whistle” politics, I guess because the metaphor is about whistling up the dog of fear. Another metaphor I’ve used, the origin of which I’ve lost, also uses a dog metaphor –

“The bitch of fear is on heat again”.

Both these ugly metaphors describe the phenomenon pretty well. The fact that it’s still feature of politics in Australia is shameful.

Playing the Race Card

Dear fellow blogger, it was disappointing yesterday to find our esteemed minister for Immigration and Citizenship, Mr Kevin Andrews, playing the race card in an issue relating to Sudanese refugees.

Taking a lead from Pauline Hanson who has been rabbiting on about African refugees, but not getting a lot of media, he has quoted “anecdotal” reports of Sudanese gangs on Melbourne streets, and using this as a rationale for reducing the component of Sudanese in the mix of refugees to be accepted in the future. This has probably earned the coalition some votes from the redneck constituency.

A statement from the Victorian Police Commissioner pointing out that their crime statistics aren’t showing this has been brushed off using quotes from an unnamed beat cop who has made a vague reference to Sudanese moving around in groups. They do the same in Toowoomba, and because they’re physically very striking (very tall and very dark), they stand out. The fact that they don’t get up to anything whilst in these groups is apparently neither here nor there.

Our local experience, with which I have some familiarity through my parish, has been generally very positive. Sure they need help in settling in, but I’ve always considered that this was typical of refugees, and that a compassionate society would offer this help.

Andrews argues that the Sudanese have difficulty adjusting to the Australian community because of the experiences they’ve been through prior to coming to Australia. What a surprise! I’d assume that this would make them more deserving.

Apart from his limited capacity to bumble his way through the more challenging aspects of his portfolio, Mr Andrews is demonstrating a complete lack of anything resembling compassion. I guess that “mean and tricky” is a box to be ticked to ensure a ministerial position in Howard’s cabinet.

Kevin Andrews has the appropriate qualification.