The media is having a field day with its coverage of the pandemic.
Nothing sells newspapers or encourages clicks so much as fear, especially when the threat is invisible, unpredictable and ubiquitous.
Initially, in this country at least, the reporting and debate was generally apolitical. That has begun to change, and we have fallen in line with our neighbours across the Pacific who saw it from the get-go as both a threat and political opportunity.
Reference the Chinese character for "crisis"(危机).
More recently, the arguments have drilled down to balancing the damage done by the shutdowns against the risk to life by lifting them. This is somewhat of a false dichotomy, however, as there is often a difference between regulation and behaviour.
Breakouts in New South Wales (the Ruby Princess) and Victoria (the quarantine failure) have made that abundantly clear.
If indeed, there is a real connection between economic performance and the level of regulation attempting to control the spread, it should be detectable in the statistics.
For the purposes of this exercise, I'll compare pandemic deaths per million with economic performance in the following countries - Japan, Germany, UK, Canada, France, Italy and the USA.
The sources (Worldometer and BBC) are generally respected, and their statistics are based on IMF data.
I'll compare the death rate with the unemployment rate. The hypothesis is that the higher the death rate, the lower the rate of unemployment, assuming that fewer controls implies less economic damage.
Japan: Death rate = 10 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 2.4% to 3%.
Germany: Death rate = 112 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 3.2% to 3.9%
United Kingdom: Death rate = 611 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 3.8% to 4.8%
Canada: Death rate = 242 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 5.7% to 7.5%
France: Death rate = 470 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 8.5% to 10.4%
Italy: Death rate = 587 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 10% to 12.7%
USA: Death rate = 576 per million. Unemployment rate = Rose from 3.7% to 10.4%.
The largest rise in unemployment in the listed countries was in the USA (6.7%) comparing with Italy (2.7%) and Canada (1.8%). The highest death rate was the UK (611/mill), followed by Italy (587/mill) and the USA (576/mill).
Tracking these figures does not seem to provide any correlation between death rate and unemployment. In fact, the reverse could be seen to apply, given countries such as Japan and Germany combine lower death rates with lower increases in unemployment.
One country that has made a virtue out of avoiding lockdowns is Sweden. Examining the economic outcome of that strategy, however, does not seem to bear out the hypothesis above.
The Swedish unemployment rate of 9% remains the highest of all the Nordic countries, up from 7.1% in March, although it is not yet officially in recession. Its death rate is high at 577 per million.
The Swedish economy has performed better than other European economies, but remains close to average for the Nordics. It is reasonable to conclude that there are so many other factors involved in any country (state of the health system, geography, demography) that a simple cause/effect relationship simple cannot be determined.
Some facts are indisputable. The USA has suffered the highest worldwide total death rate (running at 1000 + daily) as this is written, and Australia, despite recent deaths in Victoria, one of the lowest at a total of 678.
Is it worth taking the risk to open up? Nothing statistically available right now offers a guide.
Most countries are adopting a cautious approach. The fact is, we won't know the full story for years.
Comments closed.
69 comments:
"At some point, we just have to learn to live with this virus in ways that can be kept up more or less indefinitely," Abbott said.
He called for an end to "magic pudding economics" – the endless money-printing that has allowed governments to pay the wages of shut-down businesses, freeze rents and mortgages, and keep up unemployment payments without running out of funds.
This "something for nothing mindset," he argued, risks congealing into a "new normal" – during a "people once sturdily self-reliant" into giving up personal responsibility in return for being taken care of by Big Brother.
A great analysis.
John Grey.
Scientific data published in The Lancet last month shows that lockdowns and border closures do not make a difference in avoiding critical COVID-19 infections nor deaths. And when considering the cases of Sweden (no lockdown), the UK (three months’ hard lockdown), Queensland (softer lockdown) and Victoria (hard lockdown), it is clear lockdowns, hard or soft, do not appear to be very effective. What does appear effective is targeted broad testing, then effective contact tracing and containment – and learning to live with the virus. (The Australian)
John Grey.
"At some point, we just have to learn to live with this virus in ways that can be kept up more or less indefinitely," Abbott said.
Abbott is best remembered for flensing support to veterans in the 2014 budget.
He also added the Order of Australia to the Duke of Edinburgh's list of titles.
Why would anyone listen to anything he says?
With any luck, he'll stay in the country of his birth and annoy the Brits.
He remains on the taxpayer's teat, of course...
Scientific data published in The Lancet last month shows that lockdowns and border closures do not make a difference in avoiding critical COVID-19 infections nor deaths.
Really?
Here is the link to August publications in the Lancet.
Find the "scientific data" which shows this -https://www.thelancet.com/action/doSearch?searchType=quick&searchText=Covid+19&searchScope=series&journalCode=lanplh&seriesISSNFltraddfilter=2542-5196&occurrences=all&code=lancet-site&journalCode=lanplh
The US unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent in August of 2020 from 10.2 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 9.8 percent, as many businesses continued to reopen and rehire employees following coronavirus lockdowns. The number of unemployed persons dropped by 2.8 million to 13.6 million. "Trading Economics" 4/9/20
Well done President Trump.
John Grey.
"Abbott is best remembered" for stopping the boats and smashing the carbon tax.
John Grey.
"He remains on the taxpayer's teat, of course..."
A marvellous example of the pot calling the kettle black.
John Grey.
"Find the "scientific data" "
Nah, you disprove it. I'll trust the journalist at The Australian.
John Grey.
"Abbott is best remembered" for stopping the boats and smashing the carbon tax.
Yes, he never actually did anything, but he did destroy plenty.
Give the Coalition their due, they did eventually wake up to him, as did the voters of Warringah.
"Find the "scientific data" "
Nah, you disprove it. I'll trust the journalist at The Australian.
You made the claim. You can't back it up.
The Australian is not a reliable source for anything, let alone scientific data.
"You made the claim. You can't back it up."
And all you have is sneering disparagement, without a counter argument.
If that's the strength of your position, it's very weak.
John Grey
One big difference between the Blogger and Tony Abbott is that the latter never paraded his good works around. His lifesaving duties and fire fighting volunteer work were done quietly, in an unassuming manner. Just good old fashioned community service.
That contrasts with the blogger's vanity blog where he trumpets his paid contribution to society with never ending repetition.
It's sad, actually.
John Grey.
Here's one statistic you may have accidentally overlooked:
“For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. “ (US CDC)
In other words, only 9,680 people have died of Covid in the US, not 161,392 people.
John Grey.
without a counter argument.
Who's arguing?
I'm simply asking for a verifiable source.
You can't provide one, so there's nothing to argue about.
One big difference between the Blogger and Tony Abbott is that the latter never paraded his good works around.
You have a short and selective memory. This report from 2013 makes a lie of "not parading his good works". He had a staff, headed up by Peta Credlin, who were paid to do nothing else -
Abbott has a problem. He's a perker. Over the past three years he has claimed more than $50,000 in what I regard as spurious demands on the public purse. He has charged the taxpayers for his own self-promotion, his fitness obsession, for going to weddings, everything from the Birdsville races to the Hervey Bay Ocean Swim.
RTWT - https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/tony-abbott-must-stop-the-perks-to-retain-authenticity-20131009-2v85f.html
Whether these individuals died from Covid 19 or with it is immaterial. Without contracting the virus, they would not have died when and how they did.
"Abbott never paraded"
He did nothing else.
That was when he wasn't destroying what was left of the Australian welfare system. Fortunately, he was got rid of before he could do too much damage.
So you're OK with 9680 Americans dying?
That's about 7000 more than were killed on 9/11.
Tony Abbott's character was exquisitely displayed after Prince Philip was made a Knight in the Order of Australia in 2014.
Her Majesty the Queen had "let it be known" that she wanted Prince Philip to receive the Order's highest honour. But it was Tony Abbott who wore the fallout.
Tony has consistently taken personal responsibility for the decision to make the award without involving the Monarch in controversy. A lesser man, like the one who succeeded him may have been tempted to deflect criticism by pointing out that he was merely implementing the wishes of our Head of State. (Michael Smith)
An excellent summary of the so called "controversy" and Tony Abbott's outstanding character.
John Grey.
""Abbott never paraded"
He did nothing else."
That's rubbish and you know it.
Show me where he paraded his community service for political gain.
It just didn't happen.
John Grey.
"So you're OK with 9680 Americans dying?"
Obviously not, but I'm glad you have accepted that the CDC figures are true.
Shutting down the American economy for 9680 deaths is a massive over reaction, especially when you consider the deaths caused by the shutdown will surpass the 9680 Wuhan Flu deaths.
John Grey.
"Without contracting the virus, they would not have died when and how they did."
Looks like you're OK with shutting business down, people losing their jobs, mental health issues causing an increase in suicide, and enormous damage to the economy just because you'd refuse to protect the most vulnerable and allow the young and healthy to keep operating as usual.
John Grey.
Her Majesty the Queen had "let it be known" that she wanted Prince Philip to receive the Order's highest honour.
Really?
We're all dying to know how she did that.
Show me where he paraded his community service for political gain.
This provides a primer on the subject - https://newmatilda.com/2020/06/22/propaganda-101-how-tony-abbott-won-australias-highest-honour-for-service-to-indigenous-communities/?fbclid=IwAR1oXgNGmHx_zJH1NNyUc-9ABcdcbqPeIav86-yj4XreasKz6mjCXjsdu5U
"Whether these individuals died from Covid 19 or with it is immaterial"
Of course it's immaterial if you want to scare the citizens.
Just hold a press conference every day and announce all deaths without qualifying why the deaths occurred.
Everyone listening will assume the China Flu was alone responsible and be more easily scared into lockdowns, isolation, and business failure.
However a hypothetical individual living on a government handout that doesn't change no matter how bad the productive sector is going would not be expected to worry about anyone else.
John Grey
Shutting down the American economy for 9680 deaths is a massive over reaction, especially when you consider the deaths caused by the shutdown will surpass the 9680 Wuhan Flu deaths.
Strange that.
Their president has been exhorting his loyal subjects to ignore the shutdown.
In large part, they're ignoring him.
What do you suggest?
Calling out the National Guard to force everyone back to work?
"New Matilda" as an authoritative source?
HaHaHaHaHaHa!
John (snort, crackle, gasp) Grey.
"In large part, they're ignoring him."
I agree. Many Marxist looters are only listening to Soros and Biden.
Bring on the election.
John Grey.
John (snort, crackle, gasp) Grey.
You should see your GP about that.
Sounds nasty.
"...regardless of how their state or local governments reacted to the second surge of coronavirus cases, people spent the month of August reopening and getting back to work. In the end, 1.4 million more people were back on the job last month than in July." The Washington Examiner.
So much for the blogger's assertion that Americans are ignoring President Trump's encouragement to go back to work.
Wring again.
John Grey
Some more statistics for the blogger to muse on:
UCLA, Stanford Study Finds For Average 50-64 Year Old, Chances Of Dying From COVID-19 Are 1 In 19.1M.
John Grey.
Zero point zero 1 percent. That's 0.01% of the world''s population has died with and from the Chinese flu.
Instead of waiting years to find out the full impact, it's time to wind back all border closures and economic lockdowns.
John Grey.
An excerpt from the letter sent to Dan The Dictator from 600 doctors:
"Whilst an accurate cause of death of a person can be difficult to determine, we are told that since March 2020, 565 Victorian patients have died either with or from the virus (31st August numbers). This compares with annual Victorian deaths of approximately 10,000 patients with cardiovascular disease and 11,000 with cancer. Accordingly, the COVID-19 deaths are a relatively small proportion of the 114 deaths per day that are normally seen in Victoria. In comparison, since the start of March COVID-19 has been associated with 3 of the 114 deaths per day."
Another nail in the coffin of strict lockdown theory.
John Grey.
Wring again
Not sure what that means.
But I do know what this means.
The USA has recorded 6,476,863 cases of Covid 19 and 193,404 deaths as of yesterday. Trump must be so proud.
See - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
An excerpt from the letter sent to Dan The Dictator from 600 doctors
Only 600?
There are 25000 doctors in Victoria. Apparently only 2.4% are unhappy enough to sign a letter. It's reasonable to assume that the remaining 97.6% are OK with the Premier's strategy. See - https://www.aihw.gov.au/getmedia/355dbfe6-9944-4dcf-98a2-472ca076458b/Medical-practitioners-workforce-2015.pdf.aspx?inline=true
That's not a bad endorsement.
That's 0.01% of the world''s (sic) population has died with and from the Chinese flu.
There's no such condition.
It's called Corona virus or Covid 19.
"It's called Corona virus or Covid 19."
Call it what you like but the dictatorship of China released it into the world and you are trying to blame President Trump for the deaths.
Aside form your attempted deflection, i assume you agree that the death rate is far lower than the catastrophists would have us believe.
John Grey.
Another inconvenient truth:
"The deaths from Influenza each and every year is between 3500 and 4000, according to the Australian Influenza Specialist Interest Group website and the Australian Bureau of Statistics."
No shutdowns or mass hysteria in previous years. Strange that the blogger supports draconian measures this year.
John Grey.
The blogger dismisses highly educated doctors' views.
Without any medical training of his own.
(Oh wait - he was a platoon medic in 'Nam. That St Johns 2 day training puts him way ahead of the professionals who wrote to Dictator Dan)
John Grey.
The blogger does not dismiss the views of doctors.
He simply pointed out that it's reasonable to assume that over 97% of Victorian doctors approve of the government's lockdowns.
You are a complete idiot.
John Grey, you come across as a complete fool with an obsession with 1735099.
What has he done to you to make you so bitter and angry?
Maree
"The blogger does not dismiss the views of doctors."
Of course he did.
He had no rational argument against their reasoning. All he could come up with was "yeah but others disagree", and makes the false assumption that weight of numbers a equals correct opinion.
It's like saying most people believe the world is flat therefore Pythagorus was wrong in describing it as a sphere.
John Grey.
Maree, thank you for your concern.
No, I'm OK thanks.
Calling out the blogger's inconsistencies, half truths, and maniacal self-absortbtion is quite a lot of fun.
John Grey.
"it's reasonable to assume that over 97% of Victorian doctors approve of the government's lockdowns."
That is highly illogical.
All we can tell is that 600 doctors disagree with Chairman Dan. We know nothing for sure about the opinions of the others. The blogger knows the difference - he is a PhD candidate with expertise in statistical analysis.
John Grey.
John Grey you write - "Of course he did.
He had no rational argument against their reasoning."
His argument was just as rational as yours, in fact more so, because doctors in Victoria are following the CMO's advice.
I repeat - you are an idiot.
Looks like the Wuhan Flu will be around a lot longer than expected.
Morrison's preferred vaccine is now on hold because of an adverse reaction.
Bill Gates will have to wait for the money to start flowing in from his compulsory vaccine.
John Grey.
I see the blogger uses "The Atlantic" as a source document.
That would be the same "Atlantic" that was complicit in spreading the lies about President Trump and his alleged negative comments about the military.
Using a dishonest source make the user dishonest too.
Memo to the blogger - use a reliable source.
John Grey.
"Premier Gladys Berejiklian said new cases over the past few days which health authorities believe are linked to surfaces, rather than transmission through the air, were a reminder that masks were not a complete defence against the virus." (The Australian
Masks are not the magic bullet they were supposed to be.
What else have we been misled about?
John Grey.
Here's another statistic - distressing but true: 932,000 Australians lost their jobs in the March and June quarters.
Of course public servants are not suffering in the same way. They are probably happy that they have an increased purchasing power and an easier drive to work.
John Grey.
"I repeat - you are an idiot."
This idiot would like to see the counter arguments against the 600 doctors's position.
For example, try and dismiss their statement "we now know that whilst COVID-19 is highly contagious, it is of limited virulence."
They have a very strong case and their suggestions should be followed.
John Grey.
John Gay - The 600 "experts", included urologists, psychiatrists and surgeons.
As far as I know, none of them are epidemiologists.
Would you go to an epidemiologist for surgery?
Or to a psychiatrist if you had a problem with your bladder?
Actually, you probably would, considering the quality of what you post.
There are no references to The Atlantic on this blog.
You're more than a little confused.
"There are no references to The Atlantic on this blog."
Oh dear.
The blogger doesn't even read his own vanity blog.
I'd suggest the 3 people who read this rubbish have a look at the note under the photo at the top of this Risk and Reward post.
It clearly says "Pic courtesy The Atlantic".
The blogger is either incompetent or very forgetful. I guess advancing years will do that to you.
John Grey.
More unintentional hilarity from the blogger.
In the midst of identifying my spelling mistakes, he drops his own clanger.
He can't spell coronavirus correctly.
I'd laugh out loud if his inconsistency wasn't so sad.
John Grey.
Brett Sutton has been Victoria's Chief Health Officer since March 2019. Before then, his career was in emergency medicine.
Would you go to the ER for advice on a world-wide virus?
Of course not, yet Chairman Dan has done so. The Chinese Flu still runs rampant.
John Grey.
The blogger's source has big problems.
"Jeffrey Goldberg, The Atlantic’s editor in chief, conceded on MSNBC’s “All In with Chris Hayes” Monday that anonymous sourcing is “not good enough” after backlash over a story about President Donald Trump."
John Grey.
The blogger wrote "Whether these individuals died from Covid 19 or with it is immaterial."
What a lot of tripe.
The very material fact is that 96% of deaths attributed to the Chinese Flu could have been attributed to other causes.
That fraudulent data is being constantly paraded in front of us to keep us scared and more likely to follow government restrictions.
These statistics tell us to open up the economy now.
John Grey.
That fraudulent data is being constantly paraded in front of us to keep us scared and more likely to follow government restrictions.
Aha - a conspiracy!
Time to make a tinfoil hat -
backlash over a story about President Donald Trump
There is no need to read The Atlantic to understand Trump's disrespect for the military.
He has described POWs as "losers" and smeared gold star parents.
These episodes are on the public record - https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/09/08/trump-mocked-us-military-troops-losers-whole-life/
It clearly says "Pic courtesy The Atlantic".
So acknowledging the origin of a picture is now "quoting" the Atlantic.
You have a unique talent in torturing the meaning of the English language.
Good to see the blogger move his position from "There are no references to the Atlantic" to "acknowledging the origin of a picture".
Baby steps towards the truth.
One more move towards reality would be to apologise to me for saying you quoted The Atlantic.
A quick read of my posts shows you that I said "the blogger uses "The Atlantic" as a source document."
Two very different statements and the blogger deliberately uses the wrong one.
Sad.
John Grey.
On the use of statistics - today sees a lot of new information about mistakes in the collection and interpretation of statistics.
The current climate of fear has been driven by error strewn statistical analysis.
The blogger's prediction that we won't know the full story for years is now hopelessly out of date.
John Grey.
Sweden has registered its lowest rate of positive coronavirus tests yet even after its testing regime was expanded to record levels in what one health official said was a vindication of its relatively non-intrusive Covid-19 strategy.
Vindication of their strategy, and a useful analysis of statistics.
John Grey.
Sweden has made it. It is now recording fewer new cases per capita than Norway, which introduced one of Europe’s earliest lockdowns, for the first time since April.
John Grey.
Yet another arrow to the heart of statistical analysis of the Chinese Flu:
The standard tests are diagnosing huge numbers of people who may be carrying relatively insignificant amounts of the virus.
New York Times 9th Sept.
Yet another positive look at statistics.
Americans’ view of the Chinese coronavirus pandemic is gradually improving as negative views have decreased over the past few weeks, a Gallup survey released Wednesday showed.
Less than half, or 47 percent, now view the coronavirus pandemic as “getting worse,” down from the 61 percent who said the same in August. The number reached an all-time high at 73 percent in mid-July.
While the negative outlook continues to decrease, a positive outlook of the situation is gradually rising. Thirty percent now say the situation is “getting better” — a five-point jump from the 25 percent who said the same mid-August. Only 15 percent said the situation was “getting better” in July, which coincided with the peak negative outlook of 73 percent. Twenty-three percent of Americans currently believe the coronavirus situation is remaining the same.
The survey also found that worries over contracting the Wuhan virus are slowly lessening:
Slightly fewer Americans also report being worried about contracting the virus. The latest percentage of Americans, 53%, who say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about falling ill from COVID-19 is down from the 55% to 59% range Gallup has recorded since June.
Public concern about the availability of coronavirus tests (35% “very” or “moderately worried”) and hospital services (40%) are also down seven to nine points from their high points over the summer. Neither concern, however, has receded to the lower levels seen in June before the resurgence of cases nationally.
Despite the decreasing negativity, Americans are still embracing coronavirus safety precautions, such as social distancing. Nearly three-quarters indicated that they have practiced social distancing in the last 24 hours.
“From a longer-term perspective, the percentage practicing social distancing has changed little since May after peaking at 92% in late March/early April,” Gallup reported. The percentage of those who say they have “always” or “very often” practiced social distancing has ranged from 73 percent to 79 percent since mid-May.
The overwhelming majority, 92 percent, of Americans also reported using face coverings when leaving their residence in the last week.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, expressed disappointment over the lack of masks at President Donald Trump’s rallies, telling CBS This Morning’s Gayle King that ” those are the kinds of things that turn around surges and also prevent us from getting surges.”
“So I certainly would like to see universal wearing of masks,” he added:
The president continues to hold massive rallies where people are not wearing masks, including the president himself. Is it frustrating to you? — @GayleKing
Dr. Fauci: "Well, yes, it is. I've said that often… I certainly would like to see universal wearing of masks." pic.twitter.com/y0tCzoMePN
— CBS This Morning (@CBSThisMorning) September 9, 2020
Fauci, who did not stress the importance of masks in March, came under fire over the summer while viewing the Washington Nationals’ season opener. Photos show the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases director failing to socially distance and hanging his mask over his chin.
John Grey.
Your quote demonstrates that the Yanks are behaving in much the same way as we are.
Despite the decreasing negativity, Americans are still embracing coronavirus safety precautions, such as social distancing. Nearly three-quarters indicated that they have practiced social distancing in the last 24 hours.
“From a longer-term perspective, the percentage practicing social distancing has changed little since May after peaking at 92% in late March/early April,” Gallup reported. The percentage of those who say they have “always” or “very often” practiced social distancing has ranged from 73 percent to 79 percent since mid-May.
The overwhelming majority, 92 percent, of Americans also reported using face coverings when leaving their residence in the last week.
Despite Trump saying things like - “This is going away. It’s gonna go. It’s gonna leave. It’s gonna be gone. It’s going to be eradicated … If you have a flare-up in a certain area – I call them burning embers – boom, you put it out.”
11 May: ‘We have prevailed’
Apparently "prevailing" means 6,582,097 infections and 196,070 deaths. That's three and a half times the number of Americans killed in Vietnam.
You've got to hand it to Trump, he has an uncanny ability to reconstruct reality.
Sweden has made it. It is now recording fewer new cases per capita than Norway, which introduced one of Europe’s earliest lockdowns, for the first time since April.
John Grey.
The Swedish economy is behaving in much the same way as other Scandinavian economies despite the comparative absence of lockdowns - https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html
1735099 is wiping the floor with you, John Grey. I don't know why you bother.
Ex-digger.
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