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| Pic courtesy the Wire. |
One of the memes doing the rounds in social media at the moment, gentle reader, connects migration with the housing crisis.
Lets have a look at that, and attempt to establish the reality.
First up, what are the actual existing migration rates in Australia?
The graph (from the ANZ Bank) is interesting. We see peaks in 2007, 2011 and 2024. Between 2006 and 2019, the rate was more or less steady around 400,000. Then we see a precipitous drop with the pandemic, with a rebound about 650,000 peaking in 2023.
The rate began to fall after this peak, and continues to trend down.
No doubt migration is a factor, but it part of a complex picture that has been developing for decades. Issues such as planning systems and zoning are important.
Interest rate changes, fewer people per household, and investment policy are also significant.
So why has it become a political issue?
That's much easier to understand. The alleged link has become a meme (an idea that spreads). Social media amplifies memes, and they develop a momentum of their own very quickly.
This is especially the case if gross oversimplification provides the structure of the meme as it does in this case.
Link that with the xenophobia that lurks in the dark corners of Australian politics, and before you know it, some people take to the streets.
Maybe we should be looking at better solutions than restricting migration. This would have a minor impact on housing, and conceivably would have unintended harmful consequences.
Any housing reform needs to address the issues of construction and supply. It should also look at less restrictive zoning and planning. Approval pathways should be streamlined and development approvals fast tracked.
The use of prefabricated and modular homes needs to be considered. It's always been a mystery to me that homes in Australian are built one at a time. As a petrol head I understand that motor vehicles haven't been built as unique units since Henry Ford invented the assembly line. Most cars are not custom built these days, and if they are, they cost an arm and a leg.
Social housing seems to have been abandoned completely by one side of politics, and only halfheartedly promoted and supported by the other. Of course, it's difficult to make money out of investing in social housing. Social housing seeks to provide affordable rents which limits revenue.
Given the dimensions of the crisis, maybe it's time for some radical measures. Here are some suggestions -
1. Remove negative gearing beyond the residential home.
2. Abolish the Real Estate industry. It's unnecessary, and its costs to buyers and sellers operate as a handbrake for people trying to enter the market.
3. Remove stamp duty and land tax.
These radical measures terrify most politicians, so we probably won't see them anytime soon.
What operates now in the housing sector defies Maslow's hierarchy of needs. The first level on his pyramid specifies shelter after all.
