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| Polling on subs. Pic courtesy Lowy Institute |
An article by Peter Varghese in the "Pearls and Irritations" weekly is worth a read.
Varghese, now Chancellor of University of Queensland, has a distinguished career as a diplomat and public servant, from 1980 until 2016.
He served as diplomat in Vienna, Tokyo, Malaysia, and India and completed his public service career as secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade in 2016.
He has served in both Labor and Coalition administrations, and was appointed Senior Adviser (International) to Prime Minister John Howard from 2003 to 2004.
From 2004 to 2009, he was Director-General of the Office of National Assessments, an Australian government intelligence agency which reports directly to the Prime Minister.
In other words, he knows what he's talking about when it comes to international trade and security, and strategic intelligence.
His essay makes the case that Australia can and should defend itself by itself, and that the old alliances have changed to the point that they are now irrelevant. He points out the advantage of our geography. He sums up Trump's administration very clearly -
More likely than not, Trump's presidency will be judged by history as venal, incoherent, and driven by a penchant for manufactured drama.
He urges self-reliance, and points out that Trump is a naked transactionalist with no regard for historical alliances. He suggests that the US may withdraw from AUKUS, which he suggests would be a good outcome, in that it would force our government to quickly develop and implement more effective force projection.
Whilst he's not as clear as Hugh White in terms of his rejection of nuclear submarines, his thinking is similar, in that he advocates higher defence spending, and building our relationships with Asian countries to our North.
The rapidly changing situation is most likely the reason for the Albanese government's abundance of caution in relation to Trump. Perhaps ignoring his volatility is not a bad strategy.
Trump is nothing if not attention-seeking, and my teaching experience reminds me that ignoring attention-seeking behaviour works pretty well.
We live in interesting times...
