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| Image courtesy Reddit |
Mark Twain is supposed to have said that history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes.
If this is the case, (and I agree with Twain), it's interesting to apply the aphorism to the Gaza conflict.
Back in 2001, terrorists killed 3000 plus Americans by flying hijacked airliners into buildings in New York and Washington. Two years later, the invasion of Iraq by the Coalition of the Willing led to a protracted armed conflict that Lasted to 2011, and was followed by the rise of Islamic state.
It took until 2017 for the Islamic State (in the form of ISIL) to be defeated.
Estimates of civilian casualties in Iraq between 2001 and 2017 range from 600000 to 1 million.
The war hurt Bush's domestic popularity after an initial surge and also was responsible for Tony Blair's eventual resignation from politics.
It has also been interpreted as weakening the West's high moral ground when it was revealed that no weapons of mass destruction were present in Iraq. What has become perfectly obvious twenty years on, is that the invasion was really an act of revenge for the 9/11 attacks.
Remember the "mission accomplished" banner?
Revenge was exactly what the terrorists sought.
From that point of view, their act of terror was successful. They controlled the behaviour of the west, and set the agenda.
Now we see terrorists attack Israelis on October 7th 2023, and the Israeli response (or perhaps, more accurately, their reaction).
The Israelis have killed tens of thousands of Gazans, and are saying that at least seven more months of conflict remain.
There is a striking resemblance between the US reaction to 9/11, and Israel's reaction to October 7th 2023. In both cases, this reaction passed the agenda to the terrorists.
The Israelis have announced that their goal is to eliminate Hamas. To believe that they can be successful in this is to assume that Hamas has no support in Gaza. This is simply not the case.
A survey conducted in Palestine in April this year found that around 70% of respondents support the terrorist acts on October 7th.
This outcome is hardly surprising. If your home has been destroyed or your family members killed, it is likely you'll support any action taken against those responsible.
That is, after all, what can be called "human nature", just as taking vengeance is "human nature". When I was growing up, it was called "getting square". We knew exactly what that meant.
So forgetting about any moral basis for the current Israeli strategy, it is most likely destined for failure.
Reminds me of the war in Vietnam. History rhymes....
