It's Time

This interview with Carl Bernstein is deeply disturbing. Watch it to the end, gentle reader.

Bernstein has been around a long time, and is in a great position to comment on the current situation in his country. His activity back in 1972 was fundamental to uncovering a conspiracy which ultimately destroyed a presidency. He recognises criminality when he sees it.

A criminal president was forced to leave office in 1974, on the basis of the evidence uncovered by Carl Bernstein and his colleague, Bob Woodward.  Back then, the American system, with its checks and balances, worked.

Now, with another criminal president caught in conspiracy, it may not. His party has to a large extent, put the pursuit of power ahead of the rights of the American people, and it may cause the checks and balances to be overwhelmed.

The corruption of the Supreme Court is ominous. With Trump's recent stacking of the court, it is now a political agency rather than an independent judiciary. Clearly, one major cornerstone of the separation of powers, has been removed. There's a pretty good chance that the whole institutional edifice which constitutes a viable state, will collapse.

What does this mean for Australia?

As one Australian who lived the consequences of our alliance with the United States, I don't underestimate how the corruption of the American Union can affect our future security.

Let's imagine a scenario. Let's assume that Trump, or someone with his populist appeal is elected in 2024. Let's assume that a corrupt Republican senate and congress also takes power. (Incidentally, it matters little whether such an administration is Democrat or Republican, the white-anting of their institutions will have the same effect).

Let's imagine that under this populist government, the US reverts to its historically default position on international affairs, that of isolationism. Trump was heading in that direction, but wasn't in power long enough to make enduring changes.

Should this occur, we would be on our own, diplomatically and strategically. Given the diverging path between current US values and ours, it's probably an inevitability. Whether you look at the contrast between our laws on gun control, capital punishment, abortion, climate change, social welfare, etc, this divergence is rapidly becoming stark. 

As a nation, we simply need to come to terms with a future where we may be on our own. Given the rapid and escalating assertiveness of China, and the return to the use of military aggression in Europe, that situation holds serious threats for our security.

Perhaps our model could be Israel. We need to develop a completely independent military, designed to defend our country, rather than to join a powerful ally in offshore adventures such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Our procurement of military hardware and our deployment and organisation of force structure needs to reflect this new reality. Sovereign independence goes well beyond military self-reliance, as the Israelis have demonstrated, but that's where it starts.

Hugh White has had much to say about this. Our force structure, he suggests, should be based on maritime denial. We do, after all, have the moats of the Pacific and Indian Oceans in our favour. Why do we need long range nuclear submarines if we're defending our coastline? They (and our large amphibious vessels) are better suited to projection of power thousands of kilometres from our land mass in support of great power conflict. Because we have these large ships, we need expensive small ships to defend them.

We should have four times the number of submarines, not necessarily nuclear, as they are the most cost effective bulwark against surface aggressors. In addition, we need missiles and drones as well as a much larger fleet of fighters. 

Why do we need tanks that can't be moved quickly across our enormous land mass? If we ever had to use them in anger on this continent, it would already be too late. Recent events in Ukraine demonstrate their vulnerability. 

Western global dominance is on the way out, whether we like it or not. It's time we acknowledged this inconvenient fact, and did something about it. That "something" begins with increasing our defence capability.