Crime, Punishment and Politics

Image courtesy Brittanica

Recent elections in Queensland and the Northern Territory have seen a change in government based on policies that are tough on crime.

These policies were reduced to three or four word slogans, such as "Adult crime - adult time" in the case of Queensland, and three point programmes - "Reduce Crime; Rebuild the Economy and Restore our Lifestyle" in the case of the Northern Territory. The Country Liberal Party in the Territory is slightly more expansive in their use of the English language, but it's pretty simple stuff.

So, gentle reader, let's follow the KISS* principle, and keep it simple.

The simplicity ought to mean that if children are locked up for serious crimes in both jurisdictions, the crime rate should fall. Now that is a prediction, and not a certainty. To discover whether or not the action of jailing children lowers the crime rate, it's necessary to look at statistics.

Amongst the many learned articles available on Google Scholar on the topic is an international study. It found that there is no consensus on the impact of the criminal justice system on criminal activity, but that increasing the risk of apprehension and conviction is influential in reducing crime. It's a very detailed study and looks at statistics from a range of locations including California and New South Wales, but found no evidence that an increase in incarceration rates reduces crime.

That conclusion is arrived at by the research over and over again. Having said that, there is a correlation between effective policing and the crime rate.

What to me is significant is the role of the media. Stories about home invasions, street stabbings and random violence invariably attract attention. Reports of domestic violence are not so attention grabbing, although statistically more people (men women and children) are harmed in these latter circumstances than the former.

These media reports enhance the fear narrative used by politicians to seek and hold power, but there is no reason to believe that punitive measures increase public safety and the quality of community life.

Maybe it makes sense to compare recidivism rates across various jurisdictions, identify those countries with the lowest rates,  and examine the practices that reduce recidivism. Currently, Norway has one of the lowest recidivism rates worldwide (20%) which compares with the USA which has both one of the highest (68%) and shares with China and Turkey the highest incarceration rates. This map is instructive.

Incarceration rates worldwide (the darker the higher) - courtesy  Wikipedia

The countries with the lowest recidivism rates are Iceland, Finland and Norway. Maybe we should look at their practices. The Scandnavian option is deccribed here.  What is statistically clear is that getting tough on crime simply doesn't work, whereas prison reform does.

That is, unless you want to use it as a scare tactic in an election. In that context it seems pretty effective. It does nothing for your constituency, but it does get you elected.

*Keep It Simple Stupid