History Doesn't Repeat - But it Rhymes

We're downsizing and moving house, gentle reader, and during the process I unearthed the pictured front page of the Toowoomba Chronicle of Wednesday, March 19th, 2003. It was, in a "special war edition", reporting Bush's ultimatum for Saddam Hussein to leave Iraq prior to invasion by the Coalition of the Willing. My youngest daughter had been given a school assignment to complete on the report, and she had kept it.

It got me thinking.

Almost nineteen years to the day later, another military invasion has taken place, this time the Russian Federation has embarked on a "special military operation" in the Ukraine. 

Both operations were sold to the population of their respective countries as exercises in liberating an oppressed population, and the militaries involved used overwhelming force. Remember "shock and awe"?

Operation Iraqi Freedom turned out to be probably the greatest strategic blunder made by western governments this century, and its aftermath let to the development of ISIS, years of suffering for millions of Iraqis, and an enormous cost in blood and treasure paid by the countries involved. 

Australia sent troops, an action which I protested by refusing my Anniversary of National Service medal at the public presentation timed to garner support for Howard's decision. For us, it wasn't without a cost. Two Australian service personnel died in the conflict between July 16th 2003 and July 31st 2009.  

The same relatively small price is not being paid by the unfortunate Russian soldiers involved in the current debacle. They seem genuinely bewildered by the reception they're getting from the Ukrainian people. The same hostile reception wasn't evident in Iraq initially, but by 2014 it was present in spades. Funny that, the idea that a population objects to their national sovereignty being removed by a foreign military presence. The Vietnamese, as I recall, had a similar reaction over fifty years ago.

So what do we learn from this sad historical symmetry?

One universal truth is that the military industrial complex, whether it is the product of a constitutional republic like the USA, or an autocracy like the Russian Federation, thrives on warfare, and its default position is always kinetic.

It also creates enormous suffering for the innocent. As this is written, the quantum of displaced Ukrainians approaches 3.6 million. The invasion and destabilisation of Iraq resulted in 9.2 million refugees.  

As an aside, we've just heard that 450 asylum seekers held in detention are being released to move to New Zealand in a deal struck nine years ago. Apparently focus groups are telling the Coalition that the fear and loathing they exploited to use boat people as a lever to hold on to power has receded. Boat people are no longer political collateral, and the threat of the urban Independents looms large in some of the blue ribbon Liberal seats. 

The historical rhyme emerging here is the willingness of the Coalition to use individuals as political currency with no reference to Christian ethics. This from a Prime Minister who makes frequent reference to God.

In 1965-72 the collateral were conscripts. In 2001 - 2022 they are refugees. History rhymes....