Goodies and Baddies

If you pay attention to most western media sources when it comes to the situation in the Ukraine and Crimea, the issues seem clear-cut.

They're not, as this video makes clear.

The conventional narrative covers an aggressive Russian military buildup following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, the likelihood of an invasion, and the response of the Europeans, NATO, the UK and the USA to that possibility. Even our government has become involved.

There's no question that Putin is a thug who runs a corrupt and authoritarian regime, but that is not the issue when it comes to the future of the Ukraine.

If you cast your mind back, gentle reader, to the events of November 1962, you may remember, if you were around at that time, the Cuban missile crisis. I was, and I do remember it. For about a fortnight, the world held its breath.

The USA, not unreasonably, took exception to the stationing of missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, in Cuba, less than 660kms from Florida. Fortunately for world peace, and following several tense negotiations, an agreement was reached between Kennedy and Khrushchev. 

Publicly, the Soviets would dismantle their offensive weapons in Cuba and return them to the Soviet Union, subject to United nations supervision. Secretly, the Jupiter MRBMs which had been deployed by NATO in Turkey against the Soviet Union would be removed. This second part of the agreement was kept secret to avoid political complications stateside.

The current situation, from the Russian point of view, is similar, but reversed. The possibility that a western leaning Ukraine will join NATO, and base offensive capability (especially missiles) on its soil, bordering the Russian Federation, is more than Putin can bear (excuse the pun). 

This makes the current posture held by the US appear more than a little hypocritical. 

The potential bloodbath that would arise through a Russian military invasion doesn't bear thinking about. Thousands have already been killed, and when Malaysian Airlines flight 17 was shot down in July 2014 by a Russian missile, thirty-eight of the casualties were Australians.

So what is the solution? Ukraine is a nation divided, so any peaceful resolution arrived at by that country itself appears unlikely. 

Look at a map. Ukraine is in Eastern Europe, so maybe if Russia, the UK, and the USA butt out, and leave it to some body derived from the European Union to slowly and carefully resolve the issues, war may be avoidable.

Wasn't it Winston Churchill who first publicly advocated for a European Union? And didn't he offer the avoidance of bloodshed as the primary reason? He called it The United States of Europe.

It's more than a little ironic that the British have withdrawn from that union, but still demand a place at the table when it comes to issues of European security.